Past Picks
FanDuel. Once again, we have a very nicely valued line for Ja’Kobe Walter to sink three triples. The wing is in a starting role playing 26-32 minutes per game pending foul trouble, shooting 7.3 threes per game over the last four, all without Kawhi Leonard. It’s a tough matchup on a back to back, but the role and volume have been too good to pass up at this price.
Cooper Flagg has had a difficult schedule, with three of his four full games coming against the Rockets and Thunder. In each of those games, he scored at least 26 points. He is averaging 26.8 points for the season despite an injury limiting him to just 17 minutes in a game against the Pacers. Even in those limited minutes, he scored 14 points against them. The Kings have the second-worst defensive rating in the league and Flagg could receive even more scoring opportunities if Kyrie Irving (knee), who is questionable, sits out. This could be a 30-point performance for Flagg.
The Timberwolves need more scoring from Jaden McDaniels with Anthony Edwards (knee) out. LaMelo Ball also isn’t playing well, shooting 39.3% from the field and scoring just 14.4 points per game. McDaniels scored at least 19 points and attempted at least 15 shots in all three games since Edwards was sidelined. The Bucks play at the second-fastest pace and have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league, making this a favorable matchup for McDaniels to score at least 18 points again.
FanDuel. When Ayo Dosunmu came over to the Timberwolves last season, he started crashing the boards hard. Without Anthony Edwards in the lineup, Ayo had 5+ rebounds in 6/8 games, averaging 6.1 on 10.3 chances in those contests. This season, we’re seeing similar results without Edwards as Ayo has cleared this line in 2/3, averaging 6.3 on 11 chances. Rebounds for guards are highly variable, but given this is a plus matchup against Milwaukee (12th most rebounds allowed and the 8th highest three point rate) - I’ll gladly take the value at plus odds.
Dejounte Murray is listed as questionable for this one, and I’d be surprised if he suits up. That means we are backing Jeremiah Fears. In the last two games Fears played without Murray, he posted 35 and 27 points plus assists, and he cleared his line with points alone both nights. His usage climbed to 22.9% in those games, and the offense ran through him. I’d expect Fears to play around 30 minutes with a similar workload, which gives him plenty of opportunity to add in a bunch of stats. He mentioned he wants to be MVP within three years. This is another chance to show why he should be starting every game.
Jaime Jaquez is locked into a high usage role on a Bucks team that is adjusting to life without Giannis. Jaquez is a high IQ player capable of running the offense and is averaging over 26 PRA which is in line with his usage and averages when he gets roughly 28-30 minutes a game. Minnesota ranks top 10 in possessions per game and if the Bucks can make this game competitive, Jaquez has a great shot at eclipsing this combo line.
I’ve been so impressed with Cameron Boozer who has been the most impressive rookie in what is an absolutely loaded class. Boozer became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple double and his game has instantly translated and he is a highly skilled big capable of contributing in a myriad of ways. Boozer does everything well and when his shooting efficiency improves sky is the limit. I think this combo line is ultimately below his baseline averages.
Tyrese Maxey has scored at least 26 points in all seven games this season. Joel Embiid (foot) didn’t play Saturday against the Hornets and Maxey stepped up to score 38 points over 38 minutes. Embiid is questionable against the Bulls, and it might make sense for the 76ers to give him extra rest because they should still be able to defeat the Bulls without him. There is blowout concern here, but the Bulls play at the fastest pace and have the third-worst defensive rating in the league, so I still like Maxey’s chances of hitting this over.
Caesar’s. Since Paolo Banchero went down with an injury, Franz Wagner is cleared this line in 2/4 games. Not only is he needed on the scoring front, but he’s also averaging 15.3 potential assists and 70.8 passes per game in that span. The injury woes have magnified, as Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black will both be out tonight, leaving Wagner and Desmond Bane as the offensive igniters. Against the Wizards, I like the spot for Wagner - Washington has struggled against scoring/pick and roll facilitating wings this season.
KAT has been playing very well to start the season despite the Knicks slow start. He’s averaged 21.8 points per game, going over that mark in four of the first six games. Towns has also enjoyed playing the Nets going over 21 points going over in five of the last six meetings.
The LA Lakers have scored 103 points or less in back to back games. In their latest loss the 95 points scored against the Warriors was their fewest on the season. For Toronto they are in the same spot as a year ago when their lone game against the Lakers was on a Sunday night. That instance they lost by seventeen points, but salvaged that west coast road trip with four straight wins including at Oklahoma City. Toronto learns from last year’s flat Sunday performance and gets the cover.
After missing one game with a quadriceps injury, Rui Hachimura posted 12 points and five rebounds against the Timberwolves on Friday. He only played 26 minutes, but that was likely because of the lopsided score. He averages 5.8 rebounds per game for the season, which has been aided by him playing 30 minutes a night. The Warriors are resting Stephen Curry and Draymond Green for this game, so the Clippers will have a better opportunity to keep things close. With around 30 minutes likely in the cards for Hachimura, this over is appealing.
FanDuel. I like Yaxel Lendeborg to bounce back after his foul-plagued performance two nights ago. Previous to that, the rookie had cleared this line in four straight games (36 PRA in each), and will now be playing without Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Playable up to over 32.5.
The Celtics run their offense through Jayson Tatum. He dished out at least seven assists in four of five games this season. The one time he didn’t, he finished with six assists while playing only 28 minutes in a blowout win over the Bulls. The Magic have not been good defensively, posting the sixth-worst defensive rating in the league. That has contributed to them allowing the most assists per game. In what I think will be a competitive game, I like Tatum to play enough to receive ample opportunities to reach this over.
FanDuel (1.5u). With Ajay Mitchell coming off a 30 and 29-point game, this is a good spot to back him to keep it rolling. The Rockets have traditionally blitzed and doubled Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to get the ball out of his hands in an effort to get others to beat them - and I think that’s what happens tonight with the Thunder missing Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Without those two, Mitchell has seen his usage skyrocket to 32% and 35% over the last two games, averaging 18 drives per contest (almost identical numbers to SGA).