Damian Lillard trade to Bucks odds fallout: Milwaukee leapfrogs Denver as betting favorite to win 2023-24 NBA title
Damian Lillard has been traded to Milwaukee as part of a three-team deal.
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On Monday, ESPN reported that the Raptors were the leading candidates to trade for Trail Blazers All-Star guard Damian Lillard. On Tuesday, SportsLine oddsmakers still listed the Heat as favorites, but with the Raptors right behind and the Bucks as +1800 longshots. Today, Lillard landed in Milwaukee via three-team deal, and the Bucks jumped from +650 to win the 2023-24 NBA title to +400 favorites at BetMGM over defending champion Denver (+475). That has generally been the case at all the major sportsbooks, with each offering slightly different numbers. The SportsLine Projection Model (see below) didn't upgrade Milwaukee nearly as much.
Portland got two big pieces back in Bucks point guard Jrue Holiday and Suns forward Deandre Ayton, along with Phoenix rookie Toumani Camara, Milwaukee's 2029 unprotected first-round draft pick, and unprotected Milwaukee swap rights in 2028 and 2030. Phoenix gets Grayson Allen (Bucks), Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little and Keon Johnson (all from Portland).
The 33-year-old Lillard had a career year last season, averaging 32.2 points and 7.3 assists. His 32.2 points per game is the most by a player to change teams the following season. Lillard had been on record saying he wanted to play in Miami, and while Milwaukee is about as far a contrast from South Beach as possible, the Bucks clearly have a higher ceiling than the Heat do due to the presence of two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
In one way, this trade isn't surprising because Antetokounmpo put the Bucks on notice this summer by saying he would not sign another massive extension, and that doing so would be contingent on the team remaining in championship contention.
Lillard clearly accomplishes that, although Milwaukee will get much weaker defensively with him taking Holiday. With all due respect to Holiday and Khris Middleton, the seven-time All-NBA guard Lillard will immediately become the best player that Giannis has played with in Milwaukee. The Bucks now have two of the six players that scored at least 30 points per game last season.
The Bucks are now +175 favorites to win the Eastern Conference over Boston (+225) -- Miami's odds to win the East shifted from +900 to +2800 -- and their updated over/under season win total is 56.5, the highest in the league. Milwaukee opens the season at home on Oct. 26 vs. Philadelphia. Lillard's homecoming in Portland is Jan. 31.
The SportsLine Projection Model likes this deal most for the Suns, as Jurkic represents as steep upgrade over Ayton:
| MILWAUKEE | WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Before Trade | 49.5 | 60.40% | 98.20% | 21.80% | 11.10% |
| w/ Dame Lillard | 50.9 | 62.10% | 99.10% | 23.50% | 12.10% |
| Difference | 1.4 | 1.70% | 0.90% | 1.70% | 1.00% |
| | | | | | |
| PHOENIX | WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Before Trade | 51.8 | 63.20% | 97.50% | 18.50% | 10.30% |
| After Trade | 53.6 | 65.40% | 99.20% | 24.60% | 14.30% |
| Difference | 1.8 | 2.20% | 1.70% | 6.10% | 4.00% |
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