Remember when the Heat were a low-scoring, hard-nosed defensive team? Those days are long gone as the team ranks second in the NBA at 124.3 PPG. But leading scorer Norman Powell (25.0 PPG) is out, which knocked this down a couple. The Mavs are middle-of-the pack defensively overall but top five against the 3-pointer and have allowed at least 123 points just once in their past eight. Our model has Miami at 121. When the teams met recently in South Florida, the Heat won 106-102. Powell missed that, too, but had since returned and totaled 58 points in the past two.

Cooper Flagg has grabbed at least seven rebounds in each of his last six games. The rookie has been playing a ton right away, averaging 34 minutes per game for the season. This should be an up-tempo game with both the Heat and the Mavericks ranked inside the top six in the league in pace of play. The Heat have allowed the second-most rebounds per game in the league, which makes this over appealing. When Flagg faced them last week, he finished with seven rebounds.