The last three games in this series have been decided by six points or fewer, including Detroit's close 94-93 loss in Game 4. Despite the Knicks' home record of 28-15 in the regular season, their victories in this series have been nail-biters. Teams on the brink of elimination often play with increased urgency, and Detroit has demonstrated the gap between these teams is slim. This series could easily be tied if not for a fourth-quarter collapse by the Pistons in game one. Play Detroit plus the points.

Rightly aggrieved is Detroit by the non-call on Tim Hardaway's last-second 3-pointer that effectively cost them the win in Game Four. But the Pistons have proven they can compete vs. the Knicks. This series has been conducted on a knife's edge, and while NY has had just enough skill to stay above water, it's been stretched athletically. Detroit is creating matchup issues for Tom Thibodeau's side. Cade Cunningham, scoring at a 31 ppg clip in this series, has been a particular thorn in the side for New York. The Pistons, one flat six-minute spell in the 4th Q of Game One from winning both of the first two games at MSG, are very capable of sending this series back to Little Caesars. Play Pistons.

Our first quarter spread pick is largely based on a physical Detroit defense getting away with some stuff resulting in an ugly, low scoring first quarter. The 54.5 is over the 53.5 you would get with the consensus total divided by 4 and I don’t think this series is going to be higher or lower scoring in any specific quarter. We really don’t have any statistical value so this is really more about the ‘storyline’ of this series.

Do makeup calls extend from the end of a game to the next one? I think they might. The Pistons will be angry and play very aggressively. I think the refs will have to swallow the whistle at least for a half after not calling the foul on Tim Hardaway Jr.’s shot. We also pointed out all season that Detroit on the road is a better team than Detroit at home in key metrics including straight up record, margin of victory and 3pt differential. They hold teams to 35% 3pt shooting on the road vs allowing 38% at home. Karl-Anthony Towns shot 1-5 from 3pt range in the first 2 games at NY combined before going off for 9-15 in the 2 games at Detroit.

This series has been chippy and tough and even when the Pistons have cranked up the D, Jalen Brunson is getting his. He has 30 in every game this series and is over this in 12 of his last 15 playoff games (avg: 33.9). His last 7 home playoff games: 37, 34, 17 (hurt at end of Indiana series), 44, 29, 43, 40. Plenty of opportunities for him and KAT to get theirs as some of their teammates don't seem capable of finishing these days. So many ways this shot-maker can create for himself.