Donovan Mitchell has been excellent in the playoffs. He scored 30 points in both of the first two games of this series to help the Cavaliers build a 2-0 lead. Over the 10 playoff games that Mitchell appeared in last season, he averaged 29.6 points. He scored at least 26 points in seven of those 10 games. This has the potential to be a closer game with the series shifting to Miami, so that should afford Mitchell with enough minutes and shot attempts to hit this over.

This series has been more competitive than the Cavs' 2-0 lead might make it seem. Miami as been able to get into its offense fairly consistently as it's hit better than 50% from the floor (81 of 161) across the first two games. Tyler Herro, who has scored 33+ in the four play-in/playoff games, remains capable of shooting the Heat into a game. Rebounding numbers across the first two games are almost even; though Cleveland (only 17 TOs across the first two games) has been a bit more careful with possessions. If Miami, home for the first time since April 13, makes a bit of a stand as we suspect, this is time to give the Heat a chance to unnerve the Cavs, Play Heat

Max Strus didn’t start playing until late December and it took him over a month to get back to where he was last season. He is now back to being the consistent 10 to 12 point scorer and we’re going to jump on a line that still prices him as the player whose average dropped nearly 3 points this season. He's shot the three well in the first two games in this revenge spot (7-15) and we are projecting him for 10.6 in Game 3. We are also getting buy low value from his much lower over 7.5 rate on the road (52%) vs 80% at home, but I think the overall 17-5 over run coming into the game is the one to believe in.

The Heat will play with pride at home but this number is too low for me. The Cavs' starters averaging 90.5/G, shooting 53.8% from the floor. Wowsers. The Cavs have a ridiculous 133 Offensive Net Rating and 64.7 TS%. They have too much depth and length. As we told you at the start of the series - Donovan Mitchell is playing possessed and when he is shooting and dishing like this, others get great open looks. The Cavs averaged an NBA-best 121.2 points on the road this season.