Caesar’s. Jaren Jackson Jr. has failed to clear this points plus rebounds line in 13 of 22 full games played with Desmond Bane and without Ja Morant. The Thunder, the NBA’s top defense, is excellent at taking away the opposing team’s best offensive weapons, and Jackson Jr. struggled to produce in both matchups against them this season. Between Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams, the Thunder have the positional versatility to throw a plus defender at Jackson Jr. all game. I’d bet this down to under 28.5.

A bit tougher tonight for the Griz than Tuesday at Utah when the Jazz had no interest in competing in a 140-103 loss. Tonight it's Ok City on the other side tonight and the Thunder have dismantled Memphis in the three previous meetings this season, winning by 24, 13, and 17 points. Ja Morant is also still out for the Griz, which wasn't within single digits in the first three on this road trip until being gifted the Jazz two nights ago. Meanwhile, OKC shows no sign of slowing down in its latest win streak (seven), giving no indicator it might tap the brakes a bit until it sews up best record for the upcoming playoffs. Play Thunder.

Memphis shot 53.1 percent in blowing out Utah on Tuesday, so there weren't a lot of defensive rebounds for the Jazz to collect. I'm expecting the Grizzlies to have a much tougher time converting against OKC, on the final game of their five-game trip. Isaiah Hartenstein collected 14 rebounds in his last matchup with Memphis, nine in the one before. He has recorded double-digit rebounds in five straight overall entering Thursday. This game will be played fast -- both teams are Top 8 in pace -- giving us the extra possessions we need. Memphis has given up the 10th-most rebounds (52.9 per game).

This is a bad match-up for the Grizz. OKC has won 8 in a row vs them and covered 7 of those 8. Memphis has fallen apart defensively, allowing 122/G over the last 6 games. The Thunder should be energized back at home, they always play with verve even when resting vets and have covered 7 straight and 4 of 5 at home. Memphis covered their last game but that's a rarity - they have not covered two straight since Feb. 5 and are 4-17 ATS since that game on 2/5. The Grizz are 4-15 ATS vs top 9 teams in the NBA this season and the Thunder seem to enjoy sending a message to them.