This is the new number with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander downgraded to questionable. Generally when guys are downgraded this late, they are out. I was actually looking at Dallas regardless as this felt like a trap game for OKC anyways. So sometimes it's kinda karma "when" you push the button because if I had three minutes ago, I would have gotten +8.

With Derek Lively still out, and the Mavs facing tough competition, Gafford should play over 30 minutes (unless its a total blowout. OKC has major issues with opposing centers, they aren't to dominate inside and with Chet Holmgren and Rob Hartenstein out, Gafford will eat. I could see 15+ rebounds. Had a double double by halftime last time out and might again here. You could play this lower for lower return but I like this value and project 25 or more P+R. Bet his double double at +220 the other night and playing it again here.

This is the second game of a back-to-back set for the Thunder, but none of their starters played more than 30 minutes in their blowout win over the Cavaliers on Thursday. The Thunder are also 5-2 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back this season. The Mavericks have lost eight of their last 10 games with six of those losses coming by at least 10 points. Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively are out, while Kyrie Irving is questionable with his back injury. He tried to play Tuesday against the Nuggets, but shot just 4-for-18 from the field. Then, he sat out Wednesday against the Pelicans. Back injuries are tricky. Even if Irving plays, he might struggle with his shot again. Back the Thunder.