My gut says Boston controls this game and Dallas will be trying to stay within striking distance most of the night. I can see a seven-point lead at the break but Dallas finding a way to hang around and backdoor cover the full-game line with a score that looks closer than the game actually was.

White is primed to shoot 3s tonight. They will find him and he will spot up. So let’s use that info to play against assists and rebounds. Under

Doncic is 1 for his last 15 from deep. He's tired. That's part of it. But I believe in Doncic's big-game gene, and with the season on the line and Dallas having to keep up with what will likely be a riled-up Boston offense at home with a chance to close it out, Doncic is going to need to heat up from beyond the arc.

Now that DraftKings has given us 7, let's go ahead on what should be the final night of the NBA season. I don't give Dallas much chance of winning but I do think the Mavs play well again. Dereck Lively and Kyrie Irving both looked so much better in Dallas. Tim Hardaway Jr. had basically been on a milk carton in this series he had gone so missing but perhaps got some confidence by shooting 5-for-7 from deep in garbage time in Game 4. Incidentally, Games 2-3 were decided by exactly 7 points in favor of the C's so that half-point rise at DraftKings may well matter.

Holiday is an underrated rebounder who will be needed if there is no Portzingis. Take the over.

This number really should be at 5.5. Brown has consistently been under this number and as he is tasked with Luka….I think he will need an outlier game to go over.

Daniel Gafford has seen a reduction of minutes with Dereck Lively’s play at a high level. Still, with his limited minutes Gafford remains highly productive. He has cleared 6.5 points in three of the four matchups, and is averaging 76.5 percent from the field. That mark is three percent higher than his regular season NBA best 73.5 percent. Take Gafford’s over.

With the Celtics being blown out in game four, it could be a blessing in disguise for aging veteran Al Horford. Horford took a playoff low one attempt in game four, and has went under his points prop in three straight Finals games. Yet, there are looks to be had on the perimeter for the non star Celtics players. In the prior two rounds Horford was averaging close to ten attempts. Look for a series high in attempts tonight, and for Horford to clear his points prop.

We always look for outliers…and then play for the regression if they don’t adjust the numbers. Washington has uncharacteristic foul trouble….if that doesn’t happen again he should go over

Luka has averaged 46.4 PAR in 21 playoff games this season, but the Finals have been a different story. Through the first four games of this series, Doncic is averaging 43.3 PAR and has eclipsed this number only in Game 2.

Dallas finally got one game last time out and now all these points are so tempting. The 3-point line is the key stat! Boston was +21 in games 1-3, while Dallas won the 3-point line in Game 4 and dominated the game. Let’s have a close one tonight!

P.J. Washington was in foul trouble and only played 14 minutes in Game 4. Considering the final score, I’m not reading too much into his stat line. Prior to that, he had logged at least 36 minutes and scored at least 13 points in each of the first three games of this series. He is a key supporting scoring option for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, so with a heavy dose of playing time likely coming his way, the over is the way to go here.

The Mavericks dominated Game 4 to avoid the sweep. Prior to that, the Celtics had won both Game 2 and Game 3 by seven points each. I’m not reading too much into the Celtics being blown out in Game 4 and I think they win the title at home in this Game 5. However, I don’t expect the Mavericks to go down without a fight, so I’ll take them to cover this number.

PJ Washington got in early foul trouble in Game 4 and ended up playing just 14 minutes in the blowout win. In the previous eight games, Washington played 36 minutes or more. He has exceeded this prop total in 10 of his last 14 games, and his rebound number has dropped a full rebound from 6.5.

Do we give the Celtics a mulligan for that Game 4 no-show effort? Probably so. Do the Mavericks have a chance to erase the 0-3 series deficit they carried into last Friday night? Probably not. But dynamics did change in this matchup across just short of the past five quarters, with the Mavs outscoring the Celtics by 52 points since falling behind 91-70 last Wednesday. The offense has finally started to function, with Luke Doncic now attacking the paint, and the Mavs bench also finally making contributions. Boston missed the rim protection that Kristaps Porzingis could have provided in Dallas, and the Celtics are only scoring at a 100 ppg clip in this series, far down from season averages. This one stays close! Play Mavs

One game doesn't necessarily buy you much two days later, but I like everything about what the Mavericks showed last time out. They certainly relished playing with nothing to lose in Game 3. Luka's rehab and treatments worked wonders, the Mavs got back to playing their style and unlocked their offense in the manner they were searching for. The Celtics have not always made things easy on themselves. I thought they would be a long and hotly-contested series. Maybe it still could be. But putting away Dallas will be a little more tricky than vanquishing Miami or Cleveland or Indiana and the Celtics have had a nasty slip up at home in prior rounds. Can Boston just shake off that nightmarish beatdown? I'm not convinced