Now that it’s 3.5 let’s take these points. The Celtics are still elite at defending their permit er and they still have lots of options on offense. Portzingis is worth 2 points on the line not more. Let’s take the better team with points

He has the ability to fill the stat sheet. Rather than guess what kind of night this will be let’s just agree he will be a monster. He shot poorly and was right up against this….no Portzingis means even more Tatum

This is an overcorrection. What did you see in Games 1 and 2 that would warrant a 10-point line shift in favor of Dallas just because it's playing at home? Boston is undefeated on the road in these playoffs, and the Porzingis factor is being a little overhyped. We're not talking about Michael Jordan. I think Boston wins this game outright whether Porzingis plays or not.

Dallas' 3-point shooting has to bounce back to some degree and a lot of that comes off Luka drive-and-kicks. I know Boston is trying to stay home on shooters and guard Luka one on one, but they were more willing to double in Game 2 and Luka's assists went way up. Look for a repeat in Game 2.

Dallas hasn't been able to keep Boston out of the paint through the first two games. They have ti come down off someone, and Horford is the likeliest one to be abandoned. Plus, he should get a few more minutes with Porzingis either out or potentially limited.

This spread now represents a 10-point swing from the closing number in Game 2. This isn't too surprising, given the dynamics of home-court advantage, motivation and public perception. But to use a term that's thrown out way too often and is rarely accurate, the wrong team is favored. The Celtics are 6-0 in the road this postseason and, although a banged-up Kristaps Porzingis might not play, Mavericks star Luka Doncic reportedly needed a pain-killing shot to get through the last game. Boston proved against the Pacers that it can withstand a spirited effort from the home team and watch its depth take over down the stretch. Take the points with the superior team that can essentially clinch the series with a Game 3 victory.

Legacy on the line? Nothing overly fancy here in the analysis. Kyrie is a career 39.3% three-point shooter. He shot 41.1% from three in the regular season and was shooting 42.1% in the first three rounds of the playoffs. He's off to an 0-for-8 start in the Finals, but we move back to Dallas, and the absence of Porzingis will cause Boston's defense to change a bit.

Kyrie Irving has been held in check in the first two games of the NBA Finals. Getting away from Boston and in a pivotal game three I expect his game to rise. In the interior he has had the same looks as prior series but just has not got them to fall. Some early makes, and that gets his perimeter shot going. Additionally, the Celtics guard defense has faltered as series have extended in the last two rounds. Donovan Mitchell until he got hurt excelled, along with Darius Garland and Andrew Nembhard of the Pacers. Take Irving’s over on assists and points in game three.

Daniel Gafford should see the minutes to eclipse this. He has proven more effective than Dereck Lively in Games 1 and 2. He hasn't committed a PF in 37 min while Lively has 6 PFs in 37 min, so he should have a better chance of staying in the game. Gafford has eclipsed this in 3 of his last 4. The SL Model has Gafford and Lively both playing 24 minutes and still projects him for 6.6 rebounds.

This is a good buy low spot on Jrue Holiday assists. He comes in to this game 1-3 to the over in his last 4, but he has strong road numbers here: 28-12, 70% to this over on the road, averaging 5.2 assists. We are getting a more than reasonable price on a line lower than his season average. He is also averaging 9.5 potential assists through the Finals, and we can expect Boston to regress back to their mean of shooting well from deep. Look for Holiday to be on the right side of it.

If the Mavericks are going to have any hope of taking this series, they must win Game 3. Luka Doncic knows that and should come out aggressive early. He has been jacking up three-pointers in bunches, averaging 10.1 three-point attempts over the last nine games. That helped him make at least four of them in eight of the nine games. That included him nailing four three-pointers in both games against the Celtics. The over is the way to go here.

Jrue Holiday has totaled at least 13 combined rebounds and assists in both of the first two games in this series. Going back even further, he has finished with at least 11 combined rebounds and assists in eight of his last nine games. He logged 41 minutes in a close contest in Game 2, and with Kristaps Porzingis (lower leg) potentially out or at least limited for Game 3, we should see another close score. Expect Holiday to play enough to reach this over.

The Mavericks have looked overmatched in this series. The Celtics have held Kyrie Irving in check and the Mavericks’ role players haven’t been great. However, role players tend to perform better at home, so the series shifting to Dallas could be key. Another important factor is that Kristaps Porzingis (lower leg) is questionable. Even if he plays, he will likely be limited. If the Mavericks are going to get a win in this series, Game 3 is it.

I already liked the Mavericks to get a win at home, but now that Porzingis is highly questionable, it's a definite play for me. We've seen the Celtics lay too many eggs in these playoffs for them to run through Dallas for four games straight. I think Dallas has a solid chance to win both home games at home and it starts with their dynamic duo and role players producing in a must win game. Take Dallas tonight to win and make this series interesting.

This has ticked up slightly with the news that Kristaps Porzingis apparently suffered a new "rare" injury to his leg and now is more in question for Game 3 than we first thought. Boston is plus-25 in the 44 minutes Porzingis has played in this series and even in the 52 he has not. Are the Mavs really going to get swept regardless? This is the season. Kyrie Irving was not good in the two in Boston, but I expect not hearing boos all the time will only help the mercurial star. My wife boos me all the time, Kyrie, so I get it.

Kyrie Irving needs to be much better and WILL BE much better at home in Game 3. Dallas had its chances late in Game 2 and this is simply a “must” win spot.

The Mavs have shown plenty of fight and gumption throughout the postseason and have tended to start series playing as less than their best selves. BOS just may be the best team in the NBA, but the Mavs dropping 3 in a row and putting their season on life support would surprise me. I'm stick with them here to make a few more foul shots and for Kyrie to get back to his normal ways from beyond the arc and Luka to be the best player on the planet tonight to make this a series. These guys can rally. We've seen it before

This might be 19.5 by tip….Holiday is playing well and is ridiculously efficient. He simply makes almost every shot he takes. Grab it now….props to Alex S. getting this at 16.5 (yikes!).

If Portzingis is limited or out….this number will rise. Tatum was in assist mode in Game 2 and still had 9 boards. He was over this number in game 1….let’s grab it now

To this point, these Finals have not gone the way of Dallas, causing some to wonder if maybe the Celtics have got a break, spared Minnesota or Denver that might have been tougher championship matchups. The ability of Boston's lengthy perimeter defenders to play Luka and Kyrie straight-up and force them into the middle of the floor, and Dallas not able to hit 3s (just 13 for 53 in the first two games), has slowed the Mavs offense. Kyrie, however, would figure to soon break clear, and snap his 0-for-8 line on triples for this series. The Dallas defense has been good enough, flustering Jayson Tatum, and the Mavs have yet to drop a spread decision off a loss in the playoffs. Play Mavs

Jayson Tatum leads the NBA Finals with 13.5 potential assists per game, and he's been more than happy to set up his teammates. He's not shooting well; he's an unselfish player who doesn't want to hurt his team. Tatum also has 12 double-digit rebound performances in the postseason (out of 16 games). As long as Game 3 doesn't turn into a blowout, Tatum will play over 40 minutes and has a great chance to clear this prop total for the fifth straight time.

Jrue Holiday has arguably been the Celtics best player through two finals games. He's been terrific on both ends of the floor and had an outstanding 26 point, 11 rebound Game 2 performance that saw him shoot a blistering 11-14 from the field, while logging 41 minutes. Holiday has eclipsed this line in nine consecutive playoff games dating back to Game 2 against the Cavs in the Eastern Semis. I expect Holiday to log another 40+ minutes considering the series is shifting back to Dallas with the Mavs down 0-2 and favored to win Game 3. Look for Holiday to remain aggressive offensively and this number is low considering Holidays usage, playing time, and current form.