Luka Doncic doesn’t seem right at the moment. He’s gone under his PRA in nine of his last 15 games when the line is set at 50.5. In the playoffs, his gone under, 50 PRA, in six of eight. Doncic shot 6/19 from the floor and had the worst +/- out of anyone in game one. He should have some positive regression in regard to scoring, but he isn’t 100% healthy. Oklahoma City is healthy with plenty of young above average on-ball defenders to continue throwing him off his game.

Those who were on the "over" in Game 1 of this series can feel a bit aggrieved after the pace stalled later in the 4th Q. All after the game was trending "over" much of the way on Tuesday...that is until Jason Kidd cleared his bench midway thru the final stanza, and an amateurish display by the Mav reserves who helped conspire for that scoreline to land on 212 instead of the mid-to-high 220s as that game was headed. As long as the Mavs aren't so far behind that Kidd decides to rest Luka and Kyrie again in the late going, look for this scoreline to look more like some of the explosive results we saw in earlier meetings. Play Mavs-Thunder "Over"

It’s no secret that the Thunder have trouble slowing down opposing centers. In their first round series against the Pelicans, Jonas Valanciunas averaged 14.5 points and 11.0 rebounds. In Game 1 against the Mavericks, Daniel Gafford produced 16 points and 11 rebounds. He logged 27 minutes in that game and should continue to play more with Maxi Kleber (shoulder) out. Look for him to hit the over on this prop again.

Clearly Luka is playing at less than 100%…..and as they need him to score and distribute….the place where he might see a stat tumble is in rebounds. Under….. P.S- I wanted to play this under in game 1 but got cold feet. Let’s hope I’m not being stubborn

If you watched any of my stream appearances the last few days I have raised some major concerns watching Luka Doncic who clearly is operating at less than 100%. This doesn't bode well for Dallas in a series they were in for a dog fight even if Luka was operating at full powers. However Kyrie Irving looks healthy to me and I anticipate his offensive responsibilities growing as a result. Dallas will need Kyrie to probably average close to 30 on efficient scoring to even have a shot in this series. Look for Kyrie to play huge minutes in Game 2 and Dallas to be much sharper with more energy as well.

We missed the over in Game 1, barely, because of 15 missed fouls shots and starters being pulled with 4 mins left in a blowout, but we saw all the pace, relentless shot-taking and OKC offensive options unfold as expected. Luka looks spent and banged up from all the guarding he did in the first round, like Denver, Dallas is out of sorts and the younger, faster home team is going to fill the bucket. OKC has scored 117+ in 11 of last 12 at home, averaging 122.7/G in that span. Overall, OKC has scored 117, 126, 111 and 126 vs DAL. Dallas is down one top rim defender, Thunder are experts are drawing fouls (and not just SGA, either). This could get sideways again

Gafford is too strong and too athletic for Chet Holmgren and while OKC will win this series and score a lot of points and maybe close it out pretty early - like last round - the Thunder big man is gonna get tossed around like a rag doll again in the process, like he was against New Orleans. This will be an acute problem should OKC/MIN meet in the WCF. I love a lot about OKC, but there is too much string bean to the kid's game at thus stage of his development for some of these match ups

Did anything happen in Game 1 to believe something different happens in Game 2? I don't think so. Man, the Thunder were flying around defensively. Really impressive. Hard not to like that team, which might dominate the NBA for the rest of the decade with all those draft picks to trade for additional talent. Luka Doncic looked old and slow in the opener.