Jaden Ivey has trouble with Miami. Not only does he average 2.6 turnovers on the road, but he averages over three in his four games verse Miami. This under is on a 7-1 streak and it is time to regress back to the mean. The Sportsline Model makes the number 2.9.

Bam Adebayo’s points prop is a bit worrisome today facing the Detroit Pistons. The threat of a blowout always exists against Detroit, but look for Adebayo to play his game. He is not the type of player that has huge outbursts, but he consistently gets between 22 and 24 points. Even in 32-34 minutes of action expect Adebayo to clear his points prop.

As noted, I love this match-up for Bam, and with Tyler Herro out, Jimy Butler can facilitate to his heart's delight here. He will be able to slash and dish off to Bam quite a bit, the Heat are shooting the ball well from distance and Jimmy started to look like Himmy Sunday vs Utah, going for 37. In the last three games he's played with Herro out, Butler is over this, and I could se him going for 25 tonight. Pistons are 25th in opposing rebounding the last 15 games and I see some easy second chance points him Butler getting around the rim.

The Heat are making a late push and Bam should be able to eat in the pain against a young Pistons team that is running out of steam. Over the last 15 games Detroit is allowing 27 PPG to opposing centers, 25th in the NBA. The Pistons got worked by Orlando and Carter Jr was a +31. The Pistons and Bulls bullied them inside. I see Jimmy Butler feeding Bam for high-percentage shots. Bam will get to the line a bunch against a naive opponent as well.