This is as close to a dream matchup as it gets for scoring forwards and Kevin Durant is still operating close to peak powers. For starters this game has a 250 point total and the Hawks frenetic pace while playing minimal defense. Only the Pacers and Wizards surrender more combined points + rebounds to opposing forwards this season. I also like the fact that Durant has been relatively quiet lately from a scoring standpoint, however he is still playing big minutes, which points to some +EV from a distribution standpoint. Even though its a big line, I still feel like there is value on the over and Durant is set up for a potential spike/ceiling game.

We've got a big number here for Dejounte Murray who has been playing very good basketball in the month of January but screams regression candidate. This combo line feels closer to a game where Trae Young was inactive. When the pair share the court together, Murray averages 30.6 combined PRA compared to 41 PRA when Young has been out of the lineup. I also think Phoenix is a better matchup than they appear on paper as theyve been play better defense recently and rank in then bottom 10 of possessions per game.