The oddsmakers are yet to adjust from Chet Holmgren's recent games. We are seeing far more shot attempts from him than we earlier this season. Our model takes those early weeks into account, as in less shot attempts, and we still project him to hit this prop. Of his last 5 games, the only game he did not hit this number was because of a blowout lead where he only played 20 minutes. Holmgren will be able to take advantage of his young legs against a Lakers team coming off a game in Detroit. Look for OKC to run a fast pace game to tire out LA.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis each played 29 minutes in Wednesday's rout of the Pistons, so they should play Thursday night in OKC. The Lakers have won four of their last five road games, while the Thunder have dropped two straight. Grab the points in what should be a high-scoring thriller.

I wish the NBA had runlines or pucklines -- tonight, for example, is awful in terms of any close spreads. Just one game under 5. As I'm sure you know by now, I'm largely a moneyline guy so that somewhat boxes me out as I don't really love any of the underdogs yet, and I'm not the type to bet an NBA spread over a very small number. So let's throw a half-unit down here simply with the limited market. Maybe the Lakers rest LeBron or AD in the second of a B2B at the end of a four-game trip and this becomes value. Because it's the 2nd of a B2B, LA doesn't have to put out its injury report early. OKC is healthy.