This line is an over reaction to a slow offensive start. Both these teams have been playing lower scoring games. But Golden State is averaging 119 on the road, and OKC is allowing 117 at home. Thompson averages 2.3 assists and and our model has him projected for 2.3 as well. Look for Golden State to continue to find better chemistry without Jordan Poole.

Four meetings between these sides last season not only landed over but they blew beyond the over in a quartet of fireworks displays. Fundamental matchups hardly seem much different this season so expect these sides to go at it in a similar manner tonight at the Peake. Ok City has one piece it didn't last season--Chet Holmgren--who has already made quite an impression. Play Warriors-Thunder Over

I immediately thought of Giddey when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was ruled out and figured I'd play Over on his P/R/A but then saw this number and I'm like nope the other way. Definitely might be wrong but Giddey hasn't topped this yet and he's not shooting well at all. The Thunder have many more options now without SGA than they did this time last year. I mean, 15/7/7 would be a very solid line for the Aussie and in fact the model Giddey at around 29 P/R/A.

This was Warriors -2 Friday but is now -4.5 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander already ruled out. I love the Thunder roster, but I don't see them beating the Warriors without SGA (maybe they cover). Golden State shouldn't be resting anyone as it's not part of a B2B.