Have to say I'm surprised this is set so high and that over is favored. Butler is a terrific player and always raises his game in the playoffs, but he's generally not a Kevin Durant-type scorer. Butler averaged 22.9 ppg this season and the Heat are healthy around him so they don't need him to put up 28 points unless the likes of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are struggling. Butler averaged 25.0 ppg this year vs. Atlanta. The SL Model has him for 25.9 ppg tonight. There's always the injury/blowout factor as well.

I will keep this simple, Kyle Lowry is averaging 4.6 assists a game in his last ten games (excluding the final resting 8 minute game) and has averaged 24.5 minutes a game. You want to depend on a veteran guy in play-in/playoff type of situations; he will get his minutes and assists. Watch Early Edge in 5 for more picks at 4pm ET.

Miami eliminated Atlanta in five games in the first round last postseason. I think this Hawks team has more talent than the 2021-22 squad. The Heat are a bit banged up for this play-in game. Miami is 19-36 against the spread as a favorite and 2-9 ATS following a win by 10 or more points. I think the Hawks will be extremely motivated in this spot. Take the underdogs.

Jimmy Butler is made for big games. He started to crank up his production with the playoffs approaching, closing out the regular season by averaging 26.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.4 steals over his last 14 games. The Heat were 27-14 at home this season, while the Hawks went 17-24 on the road. I don’t expect the Hawks to get completely blown out in this game, but with the Heat healthy and Butler performing so well, I like Miami to cover the spread.