Houston won by three points when these two teams met earlier this year in Detroit. With Houston now on its home court and Detroit missing a handful of important players, the 5.5-point spread feels quite attainable. My model has the Rockets covering in 67% of its simulations -- and winning in 77%.

I love this spot for Jalen Green. For starters he averages 22 PPG so this number is right in line with his typical output. However what really gets me excited is this game is in Houston where Green averages 23.8 PPG compared to just 19.9 PPG on the road. It is also coming against the Pistons, possibly the only team that the Rockets might be favored against. Green is scoring 26.3 PPG in victories compared to 20.6 PPG in losses this season. The Pistons are 28th in Defensive Rating and surrender the fifth most points to opposing back courts this season. I think we will see a duel between two of the least efficient/highest volume young scorers in Jaden Ivey and Jalen Green.