The Heat and Celtics are both elite defensive teams, but each side each side has put on an impressive offensive display in the series so far. The average total is 227 points and 10 players are averaging at least 10 points per game in the series. I'm taking the over on any total below 210 until Boston and Miami cancel each other out.

The Heat were beaten 127-102 at home in Game 2 by the hard-charging Celtics, who let a halftime lead slip away in Game 1. Boston made 20 of 40 attempts from three-point range and was relentless. It played with purpose and also displayed its No. 1 defense. That's hard to duplicate. But the thing that stands out most for me here is that Miami looked lost when hitting the road for two games in Philly. I laid the points with the Celtics at home.

Playing this with Golden State tonight, and obviously there's a risk locking it in now with some random COVID issue, but I think this only goes up. Other than the third quarter of Game 1, the Celtics have been the better team in this series and now they should be whole at home Saturday with of course Marcus Smart and Al Horford returning in Game 2 (I wouldn't have played Heat ML knowing Horford was back as he originally was not expected to play; that's the early risk I'm talking about), and Derrick White expected to play Game 3 after he missed Game 2 for personal reasons. Miami, meanwhile, could be without hugely important glue guy PJ Tucker, who is having an MRI on his knee today and also is dealing with an ankle injury. I bet he sits Saturday. That matters a lot as Tucker is a great defender and hits those open corner three-pointers. Boston wins whether or not Tucker plays, but if he's ruled out that may push this up a bit more.