The Spurs stumble into this play-in game losers of four straight and 10 of 12 overall, while the youth-laden Grizzlies have surged down the stretch to wins in five of their last six. Even so, it's telling that this number has held steady at -4 since it opened despite a groundswell of public support for the Grizzlies. Perhaps the lone edge for San Antonio lies at the bench with coach Gregg Popovich, but it's a deserved distinction. He has won 33 games and reach this point with a roster that appears more suited to battle the Rockets for the NBA's worst record. Watch him find a way to take this down to the wire.

Home-court advantage certainly mattered in Tuesday's two play-in games as both home teams won in blowouts. Not sure this will be a blowout and thus will take the moneyline, but San Antonio simply hasn't been the same team since losing starting point guard Derrick White to injury in late April. The Spurs are 2-10 since then. Could this be Gregg Popovich's final game with the franchise? He could retire this offseason after coaching Team USA (if the Olympics actually happen). Memphis won the season series 2-1.

The Spurs closed out the season losing four straight, but they were all against playoff-bound teams. In fact, their last 10 losses all came against playoff teams. Memphis won five of its last six (2-4 ATS) while staying Under in six of its last seven. Memphis is 9-1 ATS after three straight Unders and 15-5 ATS immediately following a 10-point loss, both of which apply Wednesday. Lay the points.

Anyone who knows me also knows that I have loved the Grizzlies since Ja Morant joined the franchise. But this is the game that worries me, because the Spurs have been here before, they have been through the wars, and they have some old, crafty vets. Even though Gregg Popovich doesn't have enough talent, he loves the heart and desire of this squad. We saw Memphis completely fall apart in the bubble last year and not make the playoffs. At this point in their careers, maybe this game is a little too big for the Grizzlies. Give me the points, I will take all of those.

The Spurs struggled on the road down the stretch, finishing 1-7 across their final eight games away from San Antonio. What’s noteworthy is that record coincides with the injury to Derrick White (ankle), who was averaging 15.4 points and 3.5 assists before being lost for the season. The Grizzlies are the healthiest they have been all season with Jaren Jackson Jr. back in the fold, so look for them to get the win and cover along the way.

The Grizzlies went 2-1 against the Spurs this season with the one loss back in December. In the past two victories, the Grizzlies covered the spread by a combined 55.5 points. Memphis shot 24.0 percent (6-of-25) from beyond the 3-point arc in Sunday's loss at Golden State. Ja Morant shot 33.3 percent (7-of-21) from the field. I would expect a much better effort at home. The Grizzlies are 10-4 straight-up after a loss of between 10 and 19 points this season. In the past five games, Memphis has a +5.8 point differential while San Antonio has a -6.8 point differential. I'm taking the home team.