Both teams are slumping as they have combined to lose seven straight. the reeling Heat need a win Thursday in order to avoid a guaranteed losing road trip. Miami outplayed Golden State most of the way before letting it slip away into an overtime loss. This might normally seem like a letdown spot but the playoff-tested Heat should come out intent on a focused effort even in the second of a back-to-back. The Kings have allowed at least 119 points in each of their past four losses.

My data sees at least 233 points hitting the scoreboard Thursday between the Kings and Heat, easily cleating the opening posted total by nearly 10 points. My simulations have the Over hitting at least 70 percent of the time, providing a major value position. The Over is hitting at a 14-5 clip in this rivalry and the Heat are playing Over to a 13-5 mark against opponents with losing records.

Sometimes, it's not smart at all to bet a next-day NBA game this early. Other times, it can be GREAT value. I believe this spread is stealing in favor of the Kings because Miami was at Golden State on Wednesday and surely will be gassed (maybe rest a guy or two) on Thursday in the team's fifth game of a seven-game Western Conference swing -- not to mention, Miami could be looking ahead to an NBA Finals rematch vs. the Lakers on Saturday. The Kings are on a four-game skid but pretty healthy and also well-rested, last playing on Monday. They like Thursdays, too, covering seven of the past eight on that day.