This is about my limit of where I'll take a team on the moneyline. I'm quite confident Dallas wins with Portland so short-handed (down CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and perhaps Rodney Hood), but there's always the chance Damian Lillard rains down 50 on Dallas to keep this close. Lillard averaged 42.5 points in the four vs. Dallas last season. Now that the Mavs have everyone healthy/out of protocols they seem to be coming together on a four-game winning streak.

The Mavericks scored a season-high 143 points (58.3 percent from the field) against New Orleans on Friday. It marked the second straight game in which they shot over 50 percent. Dallas also shot 55.6 percent from 3-point range, making 25-of-45 attempts, and committed just six turnovers. I always look to fade NBA teams that scored 140 or more points. The Mavericks are 6-10 ATS after scoring 130-plus points over the last three seasons, including 0-1 this campaign. Portland keeps this one close.

Portland ranks sixth in the league in offensive efficiency (114.7 points per 100 possessions), and last season guard Damian Lillard scorched Dallas for a career-high-tying 61 points in the bubble. My model says the Blazers cover more than two-thirds of the time and wins by three, so you're getting strong value with Portland at this number.