I've decided for a while when I like short favorites that I'm using the moneyline. Too often this season, I've been bitten with some last-second garbage score that blows an ATS pick. This way, I don't worry about such a thing and in this case only lose about 45 cents from the -110 price on the spread. I'd feel much more confident about Indiana covering ATS if the Pacers hadn't just played in Brooklyn on Wednesday. Nothing tougher in the NBA than a road/road back-to-back -- plus Indiana is on a four-game skid. I almost hope the Pacers win by 2 here to prove my moneyline point.

The Pistons were able to take advantage of Brooklyn's inability to defend the last time out, but while the Nets struggled, I can't look past how much difficulty the Pistons have had defending the interior themselves. That doesn't bode well against a Pacers team with Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner.

My projections see serious value Thursday on the Pacers against the rebuilding and erratic Pistons in Detroit. My data sees Indiana covering at least two-thirds of the time and winning by an average margin of 10 points. The Pistons have limited personnel but recently saw a surge in which they pushed the Lakers to double-overtime at home before finally notching a win against the Nets to snap a four-game losing streak. Look for a letdown Thursday against an Indiana team looking to get back on track.