Go back to the 2018 NBA Draft, and while Trae Young has become a great player, there's no way the Hawks trade Luka Doncic (then the No. 3 pick by Atlanta) to Dallas for Young (picked No. 5 by Mavs) and a 2019 first-round pick. That first-rounder became Cam Reddish. Meh. There's nothing wrong with betting a moneyline in sports with point spreads if you don't feel comfortable with the spread number. I do think the Mavericks win here as they have turned things around of late by winning three of four and averaging 125.0 ppg in that stretch, but I don't trust Dallas to cover as it is 0-8 ATS in its past eight at home. So, moneyline it is.

My model has Trae Young and the Hawks covering the spread in nearly 70 percent of simulations against Luka Doncic and the Mavericks -- those two young stars were of course traded for one another at the 2018 NBA Draft. Dallas is just 1-9 ATS in its past 10 overall and has failed to cover eight straight in Big D.