It's do-or-die for the Celtics tonight. I expect we'll see the defensive intensity pick up, and unless Tyler Herro goes off again, this will be an uglier game than any we've seen in the series so far. Points will be at a premium.

This series has been about dead even statistically except in the win column, which sees the hard-nosed Heat just one win away from a berth in the NBA Finals. The major difference has been Miami's ability to execute down the stretch and a dynamic closer in Jimmy Butler, whose postseason legacy seems to be growing by the minute. Even so, the Celtics showed their resilience in a seven-game series against the Raptors and this is a great spot for bidding star Jayson Tatum to further his budding star status by helping Boston avoid elimination.

Here the Heat are getting points again after they’ve proven for four games to be the better team, now up 3-1. The last game may have been the best example of the Heat Hustle making an impact. They shot poorly overall at 42 percent and were out-rebounded, but the little things like not turning the ball over and creating turnovers -- only nine turnovers to the Celtics' 19 -- made all the difference. Miami is 11-2 ATS during the playoffs. Heat to cover.

There's no respect for the Heat even after they've won three of the first four games in the series. Before the series started I had Boston 3.5 points better than Miami, however there was a 1.5-point deduction for the absence of Gordon Hayward. After Game 1 I upgraded Miami a half point and then another after Game 2. If there was going to be a letdown for the Heat it would've been while leading 2-0 and the Celtics getting a boost from Hayward's return. After Game 4 I upgraded Miami a full point, leaving Boston 1.5 points better with Hayward. That is were we are at right now. I couldn't argue that Miami might be even or a point better. Take the points and the value.

I don’t like betting against Jimmy Butler because he normally won’t allow his team to let up even though the Heat have a commanding 3-1 series lead. However, I can’t see Brad Stevens and the Celtics going down without a fight. Jayson Tatum went scoreless in the first half, and Marcus Smart shot 3-for-12 from the field in Game 4, yet the Celtics only lost by three. Also, don’t expect Tyler Herro to score 37 points again for the Heat.