The Heat and Pacers are evenly matched and have a similar composition that relies on depth behind multiple solid role players and the ability to play defense when needed. The Pacers are slightly better with the latter, and have played better in the bubble although one of their two losses came against the Heat. Even so, this should be an ultra-tight series and the advantage lies in taking the points.

Both Jimmy Butler and T.J. Warren do not like each other, and I love it. Give Miami coach Erik Spoelstra credit. He is more than a figure on the sidelines; the guy can coach. He will shut down Warren and handle the Pacers.

According to my model, the Pacers cover the spread in almost 60 percent of the simulations. Indiana won six of its eight games in the bubble, including a 109-92 triumph over the Heat in the finale on Friday. The loss was the fourth in five contests for Miami, which won the first three meetings between the teams in 2019-20. Look for the Pacers to draw first blood in the series.