The Pacers are a very methodical team, ranking 24th in pace, and they rely on their defense to win games. They currently are the eighth best defensive team in the NBA and the 17th best offensive team and will be without leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon in this game. Meanwhile Miami also plays at a below-average pace, and the Heat defense has remained a top 10 unit the last two years. Take Miami.

The Pacers come off a good overtime win against Toronto, but the night before they got buried, 117-89, at Milwaukee. The Bucks do that to a lot of teams, and the Pacers are just 7-7 SU and ATS on the road this season. The Heat are another one of those teams that excel at home, going 11-3 SU and ATS so far. They also have covered all three games when getting at least three days rest. Miami is the play.

The Heat have been one of the best home teams in the league, posting an 11-3 mark ATS. Meanwhile, the Pacers are only 7-7 ATS on the road and could be without the services of Malcolm Brogdon (groin), who sat out Monday against the Raptors and is listed as a game-time decision for this contest. If he sits, the Heat could easily cover. Even if he does play, I like the Heat’s chances of covering based on their excellent track record at home.