The Raptors won all four meetings last season, and they enter this one with a perfect home record. Miami's sterling 14-5 overall record has kept this spread reasonable. The Heat have not met expectations on the road lately, failing to cover their last three. Lay it.

Miami’s win in Brooklyn on Sunday boosted its road record to 6-5. Meanwhile, the Raptors have been undeniable at home, going 9-0. They’ve been able to avoid a championship hangover thanks to a deep roster of talent. But look for the Heat to match Toronto's intensity and come within the number.