These clubs have played Over in three straight, but Thursday's elimination game for the Blazers presents an opportunity for a slower pace. The Nuggets will want to force Portland to work in the half-court and prevent easy shots in transition. The Blazers will try to force the ball out of the hands of Nikola Jokic late in the shot clock. Defensive intensity should be turned up a notch, which gives us a little more value on the Under.

The Nuggets are now firing on all cylinders, and they've also gone 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings against the Blazers. The Nuggets are the play.

I don't want this series to end, but I bet on the Nuggets, so I guess I do. Portland has played great, but through the series, their excellence has brought the Nuggets back to being who they are after kind of sleepwalking toward the end of the regular season and the first-round series against the Spurs. This is the real Denver team.

I get the feeling this series is going seven games, but I don't like the Blazers at -3.5. What I do like is the Under, as I expect points to be a bit more difficult to come by in this game, as they typically are in Games Six and Seven of a playoff series.

The Nuggets would likely love to put an end to the Blazers in Game 6 to avoid what would be their second consecutive seven-game series. Nikola Jokic is having his way with Jusuf Nurkic out and Enes Kanter battling a shoulder injury and should continue to dominate Thursday. Even if they don’t win, I think this is close enough to where I like the points.