There's a part of me wondering if Denver got through the first game of this series on adrenaline alone. The Nuggets will now be playing their ninth game in 18 days, and that's going to catch up to you at some point. Give me the Blazers at home here.

I really like the price I'm getting here, as well as the play. While it's not a hard and fast rule, history has shown that the later you get into an NBA playoff series, the greater the advantage defenses tend to have. That usually provides value on the Under as it is, and at this price, I really like it in this matchup.

Look for the young Nuggets to find it easier Friday on the road to score against the Portland Trail Blazers. Anticipate this total drifting toward the high teens for Game 4 after they clip the Over in Game 3.

In Game 2, the Nuggets were vulnerable to Portland’s perimeter shooting and never could recover from an early deficit. Yet, this how the young Nuggets are. They lack playoff experience and, although they are a No. 2 seed, oddsmakers haven’t made proper point-spread adjustments. Game 2 should prove to be the outlier of the series. Grab the Nuggets in a value spot as an underdog Friday.

Jamal Murray's thigh bruise didn't have a lot of time to heal between Games 2 and 3, and I expect him to struggle again in Portland tonight. When he shoots under 39 percent, the Nuggets are 0-4 in the postseason. This is also a situation where you trust the Trail Blazers' role players at home more than the Nuggets' role players on the road. Lay it.

The Nuggets have not been a good road team, recording an 18-26 mark there ATS. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a stellar 26-17-1 ATS at home. Jamal Murray aggravated a previous thigh injury Wednesday and the Nuggets can ill afford to have him playing at less than 100 percent. I like the Blazers chances to cover.