Coming out of the All-Star break, young teams have been known to falter. The Nuggets will hope to avoid that trend, while also continuing to implement Isiah Thomas into their rotation. On Friday, they’ll take on a Dallas Mavericks team whose stout home record of 20-9 is influenced into the spread. Yet, look for the Nuggets balance to overwhelm the Mavericks.

Denver is getting healthier and the deep Nuggets are primed for a second-half surge. Dallas is expecting Luka Doncic to do everything, but he needs more help. Look for Gary Harris to make an impact defensively and for Denver to cover this modest number.

My data sees the improving Mavericks covering nearly tow-thirds of simulations Friday against the Nuggets. I've also got Dallas winning the game straight up in more than 50 percent of simulations so you could take them outright for the increased payout, but the enhanced value comes with taking the handful of points.