The Pirates have won the last four meetings against the Brewers and six of the last seven this season, which changes an almost two-decade dominance by the Brewers. The Pirates won last night's meeting, 4-3, but they've lost five of their last seven games, the last five of which were on the road. This is a spot where I think both teams will help get over the low total after combining for 10.09 runs scored per game. The Pirates are the best over team in baseball, getting there 64 times or 57.7% of their games. Jared Jones has stayed under in his last five starts, but I think the bullpens will help each team get this game over.

The Pirates have beaten the Brewers in six of seven this season, including Monday night. But Logan Henderson is going for the Brew Crew, and Milwaukee is 7-2 when he starts. His last seven games, he’s 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA. Jared Jones has been nearly as impressive for the Pirates. But we’ll side with the Brewers’ bats at home vs. a Pirates lineup with a .562 OPS on the road since the break.

FanDuel. I love this plus odds look at Logan Henderson’s strikeouts today. The Brewers righty has cleared this line in 5/9 starts despite a disproportionate schedule - only 2/9 teams he’s faced were in the bottom half of the league of K% at the time. Today, he’ll see the Pirates who have the fifth highest strikeout rate against righties this season. And over the last two weeks: 25.8% K% while only managing a .667 OPS. The Pirates have also struggled against power pitchers all season, accruing a 30% K%. Look for Henderson’s changeup to give the Pirates fits today.