The Rays are 40-16 at home and have the starting pitching edge with Nick Martinez opposing Erick Fedde. In two starts since the All-Star Break, the 33-year-old Fedde served up four homers in a total of 8.1 innings. The White Sox are 23-30 on the road. This is a good price on the first-place Rays.

Nick Martinez is a stellar 10-2 with a 2.45 ERA. The bullpen behind him owns a 2.10 ERA since the All-Star break. That’s tough news for the White Sox, who over the last 10 days have scored two runs or less four times. The Rays are an MLB-best 40-16 at home, too. Sox starter Erick Fedde is an every-now-and-then starter who isn’t likely to go five innings. His ERA as a starter (4.61) is mediocre, and his ERA on the road (5.40) is even worse.

The only thing giving me pause here is that the Rays used a bunch of bullpen yesterday and they are likely without closer Bryan Baker after he threw 50 pitches over the last two days. Besides that, everything else lines up here for the Rays to get a win tonight. The White Sox had to expend a bunch of their own bullpen over the last two days, and played a long game in Chicago yesterday before traveling to Tampa. The Rays stay home where they have an astonishing 40-16 record, while the White Sox are just 23-30 on the road. Nick Martinez has limited hard contact and production, more so against lefties, and Erick Fedde has allowed 14 home runs to righties in 45 innings.