Troy Melton has a 1.80 ERA in nine starts and the Tigers bullpen in July has a sub-3 ERA. That’s bad news for the Royals, who have won five of six but will be missing guys for this one, including Bobby Witt Jr. KC has scored three runs or less in five straight road games. Detroit is on a 9-4 run; it’s scored six total runs in the four defeats and averaged six runs in the wins. KC starter Randy Dobnak has a 1.93 ERA but a 1.50 WHIP, signifying a little luck on his side so far. He’ll only go 4-5 innings and hand the ball to a bullpen with a 6.82 ERA the last two weeks.

Troy Melton has been a godsend for Detroit (7-2 in his nine starts) and faces a Royals team without Bobby Witt. Jr. and which is 17-33 on the road. I'm on the Tigers a few ways tonight on a weird MLB slate. This is a game they simply can't lose and hope to make a realistic playoff push. Win here, Tarik Skubal goes Friday and Casey Mize on Saturday against this bad opponent, and the Tigers might be rolling suddenly.

Melton has struck out 6, 7, 9 and 9 batters in his last four games, respectively. He's been dominant all year with a 1.80 ERA in nine starts and the Royals haven't seen him. Plus, the Royals are without Bobby Witt Jr.