The Dodgers offense is in a great spot here against Aaron Nola, after scoring just two runs last night which was enough to win. I played Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs for one unit and if they can score at least five runs, I like them to win too. Nola possesses a .350 xwOBA against lefties and Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, and Tucker are all in the order tonight. I was worried about a watered down lineup but with the normal starters in, I'm taking the over 4.5 runs and 0.5u on LA to win. Eric Lauer has four straight quality starts and will face a Phillies offense that's been league average at best vs. lefties this year, don't love him but he's been fine.

The LA Dodgers are a team that typically responds off a loss and a low production at the plate. The last four instances they have scored one run or been shutout, they have followed up with 7, 8, 12, and 15 runs. They’ve also won all seven starts with Eric Lauer on the mound since trading for him from Toronto. That gives us some value to back the Phillies as a rare home underdog, in what will be a hot evening in Philadelphia. Back the Phillies to gain another win over the Dodgers.

Since Eric Lauer was acquired by the Dodgers in May, Los Angeles has won each of his seven appearances. His 2026 ERA in Toronto was 6.69, which has been more than halved (3.12) in L.A. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has been awful for the Phillies and it's probably getting time for them to cut bait. Philadelphia has lost 5 of his last 6 starts and the right hander sports a 5.68 ERA this season. I think these trends continue and the Dodgers take the series with a win on Wednesday.