A numbers play as the broader market has this set around 16.5 while MGM is giving us the extra out to fade six innings. That's key in my opinion because this is a double header day and they would love to get a bit of length out of Robert Gasser, plus Milwaukee won game one, so I don't doubt they push him. But he's completed six innings just once this year despite pitching into the 6th inning in three straight starts, and was pulled at 5.2 innings twice. Getting 17.5 here is pivotal in my opinion, and I'm already on the Cardinals, which I mentioned how they can get to Gasser, so this is worth a half unit with the extra out on MGM.

MGM/365. To me, this line reads as on overreaction to the fact that this is game 2 of a doubleheader. But the fact is, the Brewers bullpen is in great shape, and this is a high line for Robert Gasser. The lefty has only finished six innings in one of seven starts, and faces a very tough test tonight. The Cardinals lineup features six excellent hitters against lefties (119 wRC+ or better), and six also with above average walk rates. Gasser is not an efficient pitcher (4.08 pitches per plate appearance), and has had struggles the third time through the order. I’d bet this down to under 16.5 outs as well.

Let's see if the Cardinals can pull one out tonight to salvage a split on the day. They were always going to have a tough time winning game one vs Jacob Misiorowski, but tonight they have an easier matchup with Robert Gasser and Jackson Chourio takes a seat after an 0-5 effort earlier. St Louis has a .748 OPS against southpaws in the last month, as they really have not been an easy opponent for pitchers, and Gasser is one they can get to. He's allowed about a hit per inning against righties with five homers in 25 innings, and the main bullpen arms of Ashby, Uribe and Megill have all worked a good bit either earlier today or this past weekend.

So, so tough to sweep a road DH in the majors, especially at a good division rival. The Brewers will attempt that after a 4-3 comeback win in the opener. Closer Trevor Magill probably isn't available at all today after pitching Sunday and Monday, and the team's other great bullpen arm in Aaron Ashby (12 wins!) likely can't pitch Game 2 after throwing an inning in the opener. And I'm certainly not very high on starter Robert Gasser (1-3, 4.54 ERA), who was only called back up from the minors to pitch the nightcap. I lean a STL win but will not turn down a reasonable runline on a home dog.