Wish I had access to not bat bottom nine for L.A., but that's also nearly 85 cents more expensive than Eric Lauer personally winning is. Today's newsletter parlay of the day is halfway home with Spain, and the second leg is simply Dodgers moneyline -- but that's way too high for here. Lauer has been quite good since being traded from Toronto (3-0, 2.88 ERA), while Colorado's Kyle Freeland has been arguably the worst away pitcher in the majors at 0-5 with an 8.31 ERA.

The lineup tonight for the Rockies has six righties and three lefties, with the lefties all at sub-20% strikeout rates in the left on left matchup. Maybe the Coors Field effect of leaving altitude and playing the next day near sea level could mess things up, but this is more of a fade on Eric Lauer just not striking out righties. He's sitting at a 90% zone contact rate, with just a 7% swinging strike rate, inducing little in the whiffs department, while getting some chase. The chase rate is the key here, but at 4.5 for this price I'm willing to take the under and test a Rockies lineup that has actually been solid against lefties, with a .775 OPS over the last month.

Looking to get some of our money back after the debacle last night against JP Sears. Just a terrible offensive effort by the Dodgers, so why not jump on a familiar foe in Kyle Freeland here? I don't really trust Eric Lauer but Freeland against this Dodgers lineup should provide some runs. He's allowed 15 home runs to right handed batters thus far, with a .327 avg, while being barreled up and hit hard. Mookie Betts is one of my favorite player props tonight, with 45 at bats against Freeland in his career and three long balls. Dodgers F7 TT over 4.5 runs (-110) would be my main play but I don't dislike -1.5 on the spread near even money.

Colorado Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland has had a tough season, coming into this game with a 7.25 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He leans heavily on his fastball, cutter and curveball, using those pitches nearly 70 percent of the time. Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman matches up well—his expected slugging against those pitches is .653, .718 and .527. Freeland has managed to keep Freeman in check before (.341 slugging), but that was earlier in his career. Tonight is Freddie Freeman Bobblehead Night at Dodger Stadium, and Freeman has a gift for rising to the occasion on these special nights, going deep in both 2023 and 2025. The warm July air in Los Angeles should only help hitters, making extra-base hits more likely.

Colorado Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland has had a tough season, coming into this game with a 7.25 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He leans heavily on his fastball, cutter and curveball, using those pitches nearly 70 percent of the time. Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman matches up well—his expected slugging against those pitches is .653, .718 and .527. Freeland has managed to keep Freeman in check before (.341 slugging), but that was earlier in his career. Tonight is Freddie Freeman Bobblehead Night at Dodger Stadium, and Freeman has a gift for rising to the occasion on these special nights, going deep in both 2023 and 2025. The warm July air in Los Angeles should only help hitters, making extra-base hits more likely.