The biggest surprise in the month of June have been the Miami Marlins. They lead MLB with 18 wins so far this month, and have won eight out of their last nine games. That creates a fade spot today, against a St. Louis team that I expect an increase of run production at the plate. They’ve scored just one run in this series, and over their last three games against the Marlins have scored just two total runs. Back St. Louis to end their four game skid.

Minus one meltdown vs. the Phillies, Tyler Phillips has been serviceable since joining the Marlins rotation. Miami’s bullpen has a 2.49 ERA since mid-June, so they can finish strong. The Cardinals have been a poor home-hitting team all year and the bullpen backing Kyle Leahy is at a 6.39 ERA in that span. Starting pitching is awash here, but the pen and bats favor Miami.