The strikeouts line for Bryce Miller is taking some money here yet still some good prices out there. I wish he was better vs. lefties for strikeouts and I think that plays a role in the number today as he's likely to see five or six lefties, but at least three of them have strikeout rates at 25% or worse vs. righties. He's hit 7+ Ks in all three starts since coming back from the IL and this is one where I'm just going to keep riding the wave. The splitter is a weapon vs. lefties with a near 30% whiff rate and that paired with the workload around six innings should help propel him at least near this total. For +108 it's a play.

Caesar’s. After dealing with injuries to start the season, Bryce Miller has come out of the gates hot for the Mariners, pitching to a 1.57 ERA (2.15 xERA) across his first seven appearances. He’s racked up 43 strikeouts in 40 innings, registering a 30.5% K% (94th percentile). His bump in strikeouts over the last few seasons is attributed to an uptick in velocity (1.5-2 MPH on all of his main pitches) and a tweaked pitch mix (less reliance on his sinker, which is a more contact-oriented pitch). He’ll face the Pirates, who’ve been hot at the plate, but strikeout prone. Pittsburgh is likely also without Spencer Horowitz today (hamstring injury last night) and starting their backup catcher.