Aaron Nola is not having a good year for the Phils but usually pitches well against the Mets -- and counterpart Sean Manaea is certainly nothing to write home about. A lot of Phillies hit Manaea pretty hard career and such a cheap number for the better team at home. Dunno, it's hard for me to see as I just got back from the eye doctor. Everything has that "Maddie halo" from Moonlighting in the 1980s. Maybe I'm dead, but I still taste old Slim Jim in the gums and I really hope that's not in the afterlife. Half unit.

Caesar’s. Aaron Nola is under this outs prop line in 10/14 starts, including all six outings at home, where he has a 6.21 ERA (.308 opponent average). Nola has been a victim of the ABS system, seeing his zone % shrink to 44% (outside of the COVID season, his previous low was 46%). As a result, his pitches per plate appearance of 4.03 has him in the 11th percentile of qualifiers (compared to 3.85 last year). The Mets bats are heating up (115 wRC+ over the last week), and we have prime hitting conditions at Citizens Bank Ballpark tonight. The Phillies brought up two reinforcements for the bullpen today, and manager Don Mattingly has held Nola to only 88 pitches per start in his tenure.

With temperatures in the upper 80s along with 19 MPH winds out to center field, conditions are set to add 12–18 feet to fly balls—likely turning warning-track outs into home runs. This significant atmospheric boost poses a particular problem for Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola, who enters the matchup with an inflated 5.86 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Nola’s dependence on his knuckle-curve and sinker has faltered, leading to a Location+ of 103 that isn’t enough to keep batters off his four-seam fastball, which is being struck at an average exit velocity of 91.8 mph. The Mets counter with Sean Manaea (4.78 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), primarily a reliever with a 35.7% groundball rate. This could further tax the Mets’ overworked bullpen against Philadelphia’s 12th-ranked home offense.