While there's value on the full game ML/RL, I'm targeting Max Scherzer in the F5 here. This is a rather large starting pitcher mismatch by the numbers, as Gavin Williams has been exceptional, pitching to 3.11 xFIP (3.51 xERA). Max Scherzer has a 5.42 xFIP (6.11 xERA) and even if the left on base rate and BABIP metric point to Scherzer having some positive regression, I don't believe this is a good spot for that to happen. He's allowed 10 hits in 11 innings to lefties, while they have a .385 expected wOBA on his fastball, which is thrown nearly half the time. None of his pitches are missing bats and with a lineup that could feature all lefties, I'm siding with Cleveland and Williams.

Max Scherzer is showing clear signs of decline, posting a 7.16 ERA, supported by troubling underlying metrics: fewer strikeouts, diminished fastball velocity, and a high 2.2 HR/9. Cleveland’s offense is average overall but stands out for its ability to get on base and rack up doubles. Gavin Williams’ sparkling 2.12 ERA is deceptive; his advanced stats (3.92 FIP, 4.11 SIERA) point to considerable luck, and he issues 5.2 walks per nine innings. Toronto hitters have excelled against Williams, with a .324 batting average and a 1.116 OPS. Both bullpens are liabilities: the Guardians have plummeted from 3rd last year to 24th in ERA, while the Blue Jays are not much better at 23rd. With the roof closed, Rogers Centre turns into a hitter's park.