Quite a pickle the Mariners have put themselves in by failing to wrap up this ALDS on Wednesday at Detroit...now they have to face Tarik Skubal in a deciding game. Still, no reason for Seattle to cower, having won Game 2 when Skubal was on the mound for Detroit. The Mariners also worked all season to get the home edge in the playoffs, which helped greatly in Game 2, and have gotten enough big-game hits from Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and others to feel confident about a one-off decider. Besides, George Kirby has been pitching as well as Skubal in recent weeks, with an 0.85 WHIP across his last four starts. Play Mariners on Money Line

With a handful of 6s available, we might as well use that for an under as we think this game has 3-2 written all over it. That was the score of both previous games of this series in Seattle, and it almost seems unavoidable to stay low-scoring again with Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers, In Skubal's last four starts stretching to mid-September, no scoreline has exceeded seven runs. Meanwhile, George Kirby's last three starts, though none lasting more than six innings, including Game One of this series, have seen him allow just 4 ER across 16 IP, with 39 Ks and just 2 walks across his last four starts with an 0.85 WHIP that span. Play Tigers-Mariners Under

Tarik Skubal has lost four of his last five starts, including Game 2 against the Mariners at Seattle. Here's Skubal again, this time, and he's only a -115 favorite. The last time Skubal was this cheap was August 2nd, and the Tigers beat the Phillies 7-5 as a +107 underdog against Zack Wheeler. Skubal hasn't beaten Seattle this season. The Tigers lost all three of his starts, which makes me like Skubal and the Tigers even more in this spot. He's a Cy Young pitcher, and he's going to throw some nasty stuff tonight, likely throwing over 100 pitches. He might go the distance. Tigers to win.

It would be such a big, big deal for my Michigan family and friends for the D to reach the ALCS for the first time since 2013. And I really want that for them (even if not a fan). Tarik Skubal ... yep. But Seattle is 3-0 in his three starts against them in 2025, including Game 2. And I fully expect a one-run game. I was not offered +1 like I was in Phillies-Dodgers or I would have played that. Best-case scenario: Detroit 2, Seattle 1 (or the like).

I'm aware of Tarik Skubal starting this game and being the best pitcher on the planet. I just think the Mariners find a way to grind out a win at home, not unlike Game 2 of this series when Skubal started. The Tigers have actually lost four of Skubal's last five starts. That isn't a predictive stat, I'm just illustrating that it's fine to bet against them when he pitches.

This game represents a potential redemption opportunity for Tarik Skubal, who struggled in last year's Game 5 against Cleveland, allowing five runs in a crushing defeat. The Mariners have solved Tarik Skubal three times in four tries this season, including twice at home. His 5.91 ERA is the highest against any team with a minimum of 10 innings pitched this season. Seattle has thrived at T-Mobile Park with a 100-62 record over the past two seasons - the third-best home mark in baseball. George Kirby has always pitched better at home (3.10 ERA) than on the road (4.14) over his four-year career. Skubal is a "beast" who has logged 209.3 IP this season. Give me the home underdog in this winner-take-all affair.