The Twins have been a punching bag for the Yankees over the years, and the Yankees have won the last seven meetings by three runs or more, which is what I'm looking for today with the Yankees bet on the run line. The Twins have won four of their last five games while the Yankees have lost seven of their last nine games. But I have a feeling Aaron Judge is going to have a coming-out party against Zebby Matthews, who has allowed five runs in two of his last four starts. Will Warren has allowed one run between his last two starts. Yankees to win.

I'm finding value on Zebby Matthews pitching into the 6th inning, something he's done just twice in eight starts. According to manager Rocco Baldelli, in his last start Matthews "had to do a lot of pitching to get through the first three innings" which helped to shorten his outing. However, he acknowledged that he liked how he got more efficient as he went on. The Twins torched the bullpen over the weekend, playing 11 innings yesterday, so all Matthews needs to do is have a couple efficient innings to put this in reach. For the price, I'm willing to bet Baldelli sticks with him for as long as possible to help his bullpen in the first game of the series.

Zebby Matthews has exceeded six strikeouts in three of four starts since returning from the IL and the strikeout metrics have been solid vs. lefties especially. After just three strikeouts against righties across his first three starts back and a 33% strikeout rate vs. left handed batters, he flipped the script against the Tigers last time, with four of six strikeouts coming against righties. There's probably more improvement coming to righties as we saw but I don't think his success against lefties should take too much of a dive. The swinging strike rate is above 14% and the Yankees will have six or seven lefty bats in the lineup, with the bottom four all being strikeout targets. Laddering 6,7,8 Ks.

Ryan McMahon started hot with the Yankees but has cooled off recently. He's yet to homer in his 15 games with New York, so we're leaning into the "he's due" narrative. McMahon has hit 14 of his 16 HRs against right-handed pitchers and faces rookie RHP Zebby Matthews tonight. He's 1-for-2 with a home run against Matthews already. Opponents are hitting .289 against Matthews when he pitches on the road, and McMahon is due to take advantage of Yankee Stadium's short porch in right. We set McMahon's line at +390 to homer, making this a tremendous value.

Awful loss today for the Yankees simply considering they had Max Fried opposed by Houston's struggling Jason Alexander. But I think a loss like that is good news for us in terms of backing the Bombers on Monday against a Twins team that waived the white flag at the trade deadline. And at least the New York bullpen was reset. The Minnesota bullpen was blown out Sunday in an 11-inning game and Monday starter Zebby Matthews has a 5.63 road ERA. This feels low so I'm not going to worry about -1 or the like; the reason it is likely fairly cheap is inconsistent Yanks starter Will Warren. But he has a 2.88 ERA at home.