DraftKings. Still feels weird betting the Marlins as road favorites in Atlanta, but that’s how this season has unfolded. The Marlins are hot, winning 12 of 18 games since the All Star Break, despite facing a gauntlet of a schedule. Eury Perez has looked the part of a budding ace, pitching to a 1.06 ERA over his last six starts. On the flip side, Carlos Carrasco has pitched to a 5.68 ERA in the majors this season. The Braves will still be without both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley, and are 5-13 out the break as is.

Eury Perez is in better current form than the last time he faced Atlanta. Since that start in June, Perez is 4-1 with a 1.64 ERA. Carlos Carrasco makes his second start for the Braves but has allowed three runs, or more, in six of his nine starts this season. Miami is hitting .259 over their last seven days and also have won six of their last eight. No Ronald Acuna or Austin Riley as well.

It might be time to admit that we really are looking at a potential 95-loss Braves, which is their current pace while playing .415 ball. It's one of the most-precipitous drops we can recall in many years, with the current 3-11 skid just the latest downturn. It's also a desperate roll of the dice to put recently-added Carlos Carrasco on the mound, though his first start last Thursday vs. the Reds wasn't too terrible, allowing three runs and seven hits across 6 IP. Meanwhile, Eury Perez has pitched more than adequately for the Marlins since being activated in June, with a 2.70 ERA across ten starts, even better across his last four (1.17 ERA). Play Marlins on the Money Line.

Kyle Stowers has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last month, with a 1.207 OPS in the past 30 days—second only to Nick Kurtz. He's hit 24 of his 25 home runs against right-handed pitchers and faces Carlos Carrasco today, a righty who's struggling to miss bats. Opponents have a .962 OPS against Carrasco this season. We set Stowers' line at +290 to homer.

I believe this is the first time I've bet the Marlins positively all season. Maybe for a few seasons. And I'm not understanding why they are dogs. Atlanta has lost three straight and pretty clearly has mailed it in on a massively disappointing season. The Fish have a chance to get back to .500, a big deal for a young team. Miami is in the WC hunt a little. But I'm burying the lede. This is all about the starting pitching matchup between Miami rising star Eury Perez, who has a 1.06 ERA over his past six, and Atlanta's way-past-his-prime Carlos Carrasco (5.68 ERA), who is basically just a warm body in an injury-ravaged rotation.