DraftKings / Fanatics. Nick Pivetta has been tremendous at home this season, pitching to a 2.07 ERA (3.06 xFIP), while allowing a .223 wOBA. He’s won six of his ten home starts, with four no-decisions (including his last two starts at Petco Park, in which he allowed zero runs in each outing). He’ll get the Cardinals who’ve registered a .671 OPS versus righties over the last month. The Padres will face Matthews Liberatore, who they hit hard last week (6 hits in 4.2 innings).

I think there is still value on the Padres current ML price around -180, but there's also some nice value here at +120 so I'll take a shot the Padres win comfortably. While the Cardinals sold off bullpen arms and seemingly waved the white flag, the Padres were major buyers. Matt Libertore hasn't gone more than five innings since June, allowing nine runs and 19 hits across 12 innings in July. Nick Pivetta turned in a quality start last time out against this same lineup, and pitches at home where he's been great (6-0, 2.07) ERA with a bullpen that now includes Mason Miller.

Manny Machado is riding an eight game hitting streak, with seven of those being of the multi-hit variety. I'm also playing the over 1.5 HRRBI at -145 but I'll also take a shot on the bases at this price. Machado possesses a .383 wOBA against left handed pitchers and Matt Libertore has allowed nine runs in his last three starts (just 12 innings). He does get the benefit of a pitcher's park but he faces a revamped Padres team that has Machado in the heart of the order. The third baseman is two for three against Libertore in his career, with a home run and no strikeouts, plus the Cardinals just traded two of their top relievers so the bullpen is thin.

Nick Pivetta is 6-0 in 11 home starts. He has a 2.07 ERA in Petco. The Cardinals are terrible right now, having gone 8-16 this month after losing their last game in June. The Padres have a stellar bullpen, too, ready to hold a lead. Pivetta moves to 7-0 at home and we cash plus money.

The Cardinals did little at the trade deadline to stir a slumbering offense that has been blanked a hard-to-conceive nine of their past thirty games, including the last two of the midweek series vs. the Marlins. With no real reinforcements for the offense arriving at the deadline, a quick turnaround seems remote. Though with a few exceptions, Matthew Liberatore has at least kept St Louis close in most of his starts, allowing two runs or fewer in five of his last six. Meanwhile, with Nick Pivetta spinning an 0.96 ERA for the Padres across his last six starts, this one has the look of another low-scoring game. Play Cardinals-Padres Under.

I believe the proverbial worm turns today in MLB. Only a tad superstitious so that July is gone is simply part, but post-trade deadline things usually crystallize and results go back to early-season norms. Then in about mid-September they get wonky again so we need to recoup July over the next six weeks or move on to football. The day after the trade deadline might be my favorite to bet all season other than Opening Day. Now we know what teams are and Padres GM AJ Preller -- as he is known to do -- went bananas on Thursday and told his players he's all in. I'm completely fine with -1 but not gonna use it here because I'm going big on the ML.