Gunnar Henderson has seen the ball very well when facing Taj Bradley, going 7-for-17 (.412) with a home run against him. While Henderson is having a bit of a down year compared to last season, he's still hitting .311 with a .909 OPS against right-handed pitchers. He's also hit 9 home runs in just 33 career games against the Rays. Bradley has struggled at home this season, which makes sense given he's pitching in a minor league park. The model likes this matchup for Henderson and sets his line at +418 to homer.

Junior Caminero showcased his immense power at the Home Run Derby, and now he returns to his home ballpark—where he absolutely mashes. He's hitting .316 with a .954 OPS at home this season, compared to just a .177 average and .607 OPS on the road. Orioles' starter Charlie Morton has allowed opponents to hit .290 against him when pitching on the road. Right-handed batters are hitting .288 against Morton this season. While he hasn't given up many home runs, the Rays' temporary ballpark in Tampa is homer-friendly. We set Caminero's line at +330 to homer.

Fanatics at -140. After a brutal start to his season, Charlie Morton, very quietly, has pitched to a 2.76 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 42.1 innings over his last eight starts. Over that span, his 30.9% called plus swinging strike rate ranks 8th out of 131 qualified pitchers (for reference, Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal are both at 31%). He’ll face the Rays, whom he carved up for seven strikeouts in six innings in Tampa last month. The Rays ran a league average strikeout rate against righties in the first half, but their lefty heavy lineup should play to Morton’s better split (25% K% versus southpaws).

Sounds like Brandon Lowe will be activated off the IL for Friday's series opener for the Rays, but Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman will not be ready yet. Baltimore pitcher Charlie Morton has turned his season around and just won in Tampa on June 19 with a strong effort but still has an ERA near 6.00 away. The Rays' Taj Bradley dominated Boston last time out. Bradley has been pummeled twice by the O's this season, but that just makes me convinced he will be dialed in Friday. Throw out those two starts, and Bradley has allowed three earned or fewer in four straight. It's his first home start in a month.