Fading the 7th strikeout here for Kevin Gausman at -128. I make the number -149 (59.8%) for 6 or fewer strikeouts.

This looks like a good spot to fade the struggling veteran Kevin Gausman from going a full six innings. Between the price point, difficult matchup, and Gausman rarely goes 100+ pitches in B2B starts. Speaking of matchups, it doesn’t get tougher than the Yankees who unsurprisingly have excellent lifetime numbers against Gausman. It’s also worth noting that Gausman has pitched poorly at home this season.

Max Fried has gone over this total in three straight starts but last time out against the Reds his line was 5.5 just as it is here. The line on Carlos Rodon last night was also set at 5.5 yet his swinging strike and strikeout rates are significantly higher than Fried. The Yankees took a tough loss last night and Rodon ended with four strikeouts in five innings, so I'm fading strikeouts again here. Toronto has been under 17% for strikeout rate against southpaws since May 1st and in June alone they were under 15%.