Clay Holmes projects close to 16 outs even without Sean Murphy in the lineup. Ronald Acuna Jr is hitting over .400 in June and Matt Olson is over .300 as well; both are on my HRRBI radar tonight. Holmes is due for some regression, with a 3.91 xERA vs. a 2.87 real ERA. The .269 BABIP and 83% strand rate are also unsustainable figures long term and his home run to fly ball rate has jumped slightly year over year, which shouldn't help his cause tonight. Atlanta sees the third most pitches per plate appearance and while 17.5 is still available, I'll fade the full six innings.

Spencer Strider looked like his old self last outing and that tells me he's finally feeling good after his Tommy John surgery and hamstring injury. The Mets' offense is reeling. The Braves are hot. Mets' starter Clay Holmes might start to get tired around now, too, given that he was a reliever the last several years before transitioning to starter. Braves win.

FanDuel. Playable to -165. Another juicy under from me, as I’m fading Spencer Strider on his strikeout prop. Strider is coming off a 13 strikeout game against the K-prone Rockies, who were fresh off a homestand. However, before that outing, Strider was under this line in each of his five starts, only reaching the seven strikeout mark once. Strider will have a much tougher opponent tonight in the Mets. New York has consistently held a bottom eight strikeout rate against righties all season (20.2% - 19.7% over the last two weeks). And they’ve only struck out 25% of the time against power pitchers this season.