Juan Soto has three home runs over his last six games played heading into this matchup, and while he hasn't swung the bat like a $700 million player, his early season struggles are overstated. Soto has hit 9 of his 11 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers. He's facing Antonio Senzatela, against whom he's had some success—2 home runs in just 4 at-bats, including one in their matchup last week. Senzatela is 1-10 on the season and has allowed 98 hits in just 58 innings pitched. We set the line at +300 for Soto to hit a home run, so there's decent value at +350.

Note that some rain is in the forecast in Denver. I have some modest trap game worries for the Mets, but New York's Kodai Senga has been so good (1.60 ERA) and Colorado's Antonio Senzatela so bad (1-10, 7.14 ERA) that we have to play the F5.

Antonio Senzatela is the best pitcher in baseball to fade right now with his 7.14 ERA (it's 7.42 at home) and the Rockies should be able to hit Kodai Senga after having just seen him last week. Remember, Coors Field suppresses pitch movement, too. I'm expecting a ton of runs in this one. I'd go over 12.5.

DraftKings. Let’s get this out of the way from the jump - yes, I’m trusting the Rockies lineup here. They’ve been better at home recently with a 22.7% K% vs righties over the last month (was 27% before that). Recently, they’ve inserte some better contact hitters into their lineup, including Orlando Arcia, Thairo Estrada, and Tyler Freeman. Kodai Senga has been brilliant this season with a 1.60 ERA, but is still under this line in eight of eleven starts, including four of five on the road. Plus, he’s making his first career start at Coors Field, which traditionally wreaks havoc on pitchers overly reliant on movement (like Senga with his forkball).

Kodai Senga is a stud and the Rockies starter is a dud. Antonio Senzatela has allowed 4 ER or more in 7 straight starts and the Rockies have a run differential of -25 in his last 7 starters. The Rockies are 4-14 on the RL in their last 18 at home and I expect the Mets to start swinging the bats early at Coors Field today. The Mets won all 3 games on the RL vs the Rockies at home. Looking for way more value by cutting the odds in half.