Mitch Keller is pitching fine for the Pirates but gets no run support. PIT is 3-9 in his 12 starts and 2-5 at home. Astros starter has been really good. Pirates have serious pen issues and are 5-9 vs the AL and under .500 at home.

No need to remind PNC Park fans that the Pirates have trouble scoring runs. Only the woeful Rockies have scored less, and even then it's just one measly run fewer. Pittsburgh's bats have only managed three runs in total across the first two games of this series, and they'll be fortunate to get that much against Astros starter Framber Valdez, who has a 1.70 ERA across his last five starts, all Astros wins. The capable Houston bullpen has also effectively closed out each of those wins, and this looks another likely case of the Bucs offense simply being overmatched vs. a top-shelf pitcher. Play Astros on the Run Line.

It’s been a quiet week for the Houston Astros in the hitting prop market. Each of their last five matchups they have scored three runs or less. Expecting the bats to break out to a degree today as a heavy road favorite against the Pirates and Mitch Keller. In Keller’s non divisional home starts, the Pirates are 0-5 on the year. Take Paredes to clear his total bases prop.

The total here is 7.5 for the full game but we need a 5th run to score in the F5 to beat us here. After the last two nights of 3-0 scores, we now get Framber Valdez against Mitch Keller. Pittsburgh has the 4th-lowest OPS against left handed pitchers and the Astros are bottom-seven in MLB for OPS against right handers so far. This Houston lineup has looked like a shell of itself without Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, plus the Pirates have been one of MLB's lowest scoring teams thus far. There is also little success or a lack of experience on both sides for the hitters against these pitchers in this interleague matchup.

Thus far, scorelines in this Astros-Pirates series have more resembled Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester United, as runs have been hard to come by the past two nights in a pair of 3-0 shutout results. We wonder if we'll even get that many runs tonight; Bucs starter Bailey Falter knows all about low scores, given that Pittsburgh's offense has provided him with all of six runs across his last five starts, though Keller is doing his best to keep pace with a 2.90 ERA in those five. We doubt Keller gets much more help tonight as the matchup vs. Astros ace "1-A" Framber Valdez (1.70 ERA his last five starts, all Houston wins) looks especially problematic for the limited Bucs offense. Play Astros-Pirates Under.