Jose Berrios' underlying metrics aren't nearly as good as his surface numbers indicate. I love the Phillies' offense in this matchup now that Bryce Harper has returned. Harper homered, walked and scored twice in Tuesday's 8-3 win. I bet the Phillies in the first five because I believe they'll give rookie Mick Abel the run support he needs.

It's rare to find a price like this for Kyle Schwarber to homer against a right-handed pitcher, but Jose Berrios has allowed just one home run in his last three starts, and Schwarber is 0-for-7 in his career against him. Despite that, the model likes this matchup—Berrios has a history of being homer-prone, and Schwarber has consistently mashed right-handed pitching. We set the line at +240, and with bet365 offering +310, this is strong value.

Haven't played a full-game total in a while. Not loving the F5 numbers. The Jays haven't seen Top 10 Phillies prospect Mick Abel, who threw six shutout innings in his MLB debut a couple of weeks ago vs. Pittsburgh. Toronto's Jose Berrios comes off his best start of the year and has a quality start in five of his past six. Only playing this with the hook, not at 9.

I've seen a lot of Mick Abel at every level of the minors and he projects as a bullpen arm to me. I don't think this outing goes nearly as well as his first. Jose Berrios has been great lately. Jays are swinging the bats well, finally. I'll lean into that here.