At home, Corban Carroll is hitting the over 59.26% of the time, with an average of 2.33 total bases per game. He hasn’t recorded an extra base hit in his last five games. Carroll is facing Mike Burrows, a right-handed pitcher with a 7.20 ERA. The Pirates' pitching staff has struggled, ranking 5th worst in strikeout rate (20%) and allowing a high slugging percentage to opponents. Carroll has a 156 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season.

The Pirates are 6-20 on the road after Monday's shutout loss to Arizona. I bet the Diamondbacks to keep pouring it on behind Corbin Burnes, who has allowed three runs over his last 23 innings. It is the second major-league start for Pittsburgh right-hander Mike Burrows. The Diamondbacks own an MLB-best .808 OPS against right-handed pitching, while the Pirates rank 29th at .640. Look for Burrows, who served up two homers to the Brewers last time out, to struggle Tuesday night.

Ketel Marte has been on a tear this month, launching 8 home runs in just 22 games during May. His performance at home has been especially impressive, boasting a 1.023 OPS, and he's been even better against right-handed pitchers, with a 1.089 OPS and 7 of those 8 homers coming against them. Today, he faces Mike Burrows, who is making only his second career start and has already surrendered 3 home runs in just 8.1 innings pitched. FanDuel is offering Marte at +360, which stands out as strong value compared to other sportsbooks pricing him closer to +300. Based on our projections, we set Marte's line at +270, making this a solid value play.

Corbin Burnes is back in Cy Young form. D-Back mash at home and the Pirates are failures on the road. Pirates entered play Mon 9-16 on the RL on the road, averaging a -1.4 RD in those games. Mike Burrows has seemed overwhelmed in a limited MLB sample on the bump for the Buccos. Pirates have a .588 OPS on the road; only the AAA Rockies are worse.